On #RauchdyMatch 4.0 Forecast

Boys,

I mentioned in the Adam Sandler post that we’ve been watching a lot of his movies recently — especially after Happy Gilmore 2 came out. But as I think about how to write about this year’s match, I think of a scene toward the end of Billy Madison where Billy and Eric are competing in the academic decathlon. The final competition is a question-answer type of thing. Ultimately, Billy picks Business Ethics for Eric and, since he is an unethical guy, isn’t able to answer the question correctly.

You might be asking yourself why I’m thinking of this scene as I prepare for the biggest golf match of my whole entire life. Well, let’s play a game. See the below board.

Now, my goal would be to pick something that I would have the advantage. There are a few categories that stick out.

The Roman Empire

I think about this nearly every day, so it goes without saying that this is one I’d surely have the upper hand.

Automotive Repair

I can change a tire and know what to look for to make sure my engine isn’t overheating, but that’s about it. Let’s find another one.

Burning Dog Poo and the Human Response

There was one night in high school. Ask me about it later, but let’s not get into that here.

Course Management

Ahhh…. here’s a clear advantage I have. And I’ll say it before anyone else does. “But Ryan, Kelly has a caddy. Who cares if she isn’t good at course management if her caddy is?” Pish posh I say. Between the two of us, which one is more likely to consider the information before making a decision vs. making a decision and then have to listen to Jacob talk about blah blah and I stopped listening so just let me hit the shot, OK?

Maybe that works when we’re sipping High Noons and the pressure is dialed down to a 1 or 2. But what happens when your opponent stuffs one to four feet? Do you press? Do you second guess? Do you crack?

So I will consider this post a gift for your mom who might read it, or might decide that she doesn’t need any course management help to beat me. Either way, here is exactly what I’m going to do for each hole. Now, I won’t know pin positions just yet, so a few things might change. But for the most part, here goes… remember, we’re playing holes 1-5, 7-10 stroke play (they closed hole 6, so to make it an even 9 holes, we’ll round the turn and finish on 10.

Hole 1: Par 4 – 335 yards

Club off the tee: Driver

With a driver, I can carry the three centerline bunkers. Trouble is there on either side of the fairway if I miss my line by too much, and there is a bunker about 50 yards from the green that is reachable if I hit it there. But I think this is a hole to try to get it up close early, and find a way to get up and down for birdie.

Prediction: Ryan (3), Kelly (4)

Match: Ryan (-1), Kelly (E)

Hole 2: Par 4 – 376 yards

Club off the tee: 6i

The hole says 376, but it doesn’t play that long. Water all down the right side is going to have me playing #2 conservatively. Your mom will probably hit a good driver, but I’ve seen her go right before and make a big number. I can hit a 6i over the bunker and leave myself 100-140y in to the green. Since it’s a tricky green in most spots, I’ll play to the center and take my par. I’ll say your mom finds something here and makes a birdie.

Prediction: Ryan (4), Kelly (3)

Match: Ryan (-1), Kelly (-1)

Hole 3: Par 5 – 431 yards

Club off the tee: Driver

Here is where I show your mom what she’s up against. From the front tees, I can cut the angle severly and probably leave myself with less than 150y into the par 5. I might be in the rough, but I can play something to the middle or the left side of the green and plan for an easy two-putt birdie. Meanwhile, your mom will have to figure out whether she wants to take on the valley in front of the green with the approach. I can see a stumble or two here, leading to a bogey for mom and a two shot swing on the hole.

Prediction: Ryan (4), Kelly (6)

Match: Ryan (-2), Kelly (E)

Hole 4: Par 3 – 128 yards

Club off the tee: PW

It depends on where the pin is, but it could be a gap wedge or a pitching wedge. Your mom usually plays this hole well, so I’m going to assume she will make par. My strategy is the same as it was on #2 — just play it safe on the tee shot and make a comfortable par.

Prediction: Ryan (3), Kelly (3)

Match: Ryan (-2), Kelly (E)

Hole 5: Par 4 – 242 yards

Club off the tee: Hybrid

Your mom, still down two shots, will start to feel the need to press. She’ll hit driver down around the green, but will be in the rough and will have a tough pitch to get up and down on a tough green to read. I’ll play a hybrid down to the edge of the fairway. I’ll play first, and I’ll hit a good chip to 10-15 feet. Your mom will do the same but be just outside of mine. Neither of us will make our putts and we’ll both head across the green bridge with pars.

Prediction: Ryan (4), Kelly (4)

Match: Ryan (-2), Kelly (E)

Hole 7: Par 4 – 224 yards

Club off the tee: 8i

Your mom will again pull driver. She’ll aim for the hill left of the green and try to put something close. And for argument’s sake, lets go ahead and say she pulls it off. Me, meanwhile, will play it conservatively with an easy 8i to about 60y. Staring down the flag, I will stick my approach to four feet and make the putt. Your mom will also have a nice up and down, but the frustration will start to become visible as she is -1 and still two shots behind with just three holes to go.

Prediction: Ryan (3), Kelly (3)

Match: Ryan (-3), Kelly (-1)

Hole 8: Par 3 – 96 yards

Club off the tee: SW

As we approach the 8th tee, your mom will make a comment about how she hates this hole or how she never plays it well or something like that. Translated, that means she’s already on the ropes and her internal corner man is waiving the white towel. It’s a tough hole for me too, as a sand wedge will likely generate a lot of spin. Chances are, I’ll fly it to the middle and spin the ball just off the front of the green. My chipping has been weak this year, so I’ll say I don’t get up and down. Your mom will hit it to the far right side of the green, and unless the pin is tucked over there, which I’m not assuming it will be, then a frustrating three putt will yield no blood on the overall match.

Prediction: Ryan (4), Kelly (4)

Match: Ryan (-2), Kelly (+1)

Hole 9: Par 5 – 444 yards

Club off the tee: 3W

This par 5 is reachable for me in two even without hitting driver. Driver brings water into play and at this point in the match, it’s not worth it to open myself up for that kind of mistake. It’s a wide enough fairway, so I expect your mom to also hit a good one, but it will be behind mine. Your mom will have 210y in, and will have to try and hit 3w to make something happen. Unfortunately, it leaks to the right and finds the water. Seeing this, I’ll hit a 7i up close to the green. A chip and two putts will get me out of there with a shoulda-been birdie, but your mom, with all the air sucked out of her sails, will card a bogey and is now down four shots with one hole to play.

Prediction: Ryan (5), Kelly (6)

Match: Ryan (-2), Kelly (+2)

Hole 10: Par 4 – 303 yards

Club off the tee: 5i

Now playing for pride, your mom will blast a driver up close to the green. I’ll take an iron and keep it in play. My second shot from 100y will find the middle of the green, and as I walk up to the green, I’ll acknowledge the crowd whose gathered to watch me win my second Rauchdy Match. Your mom will mutter four letter words to me, but will ultimately acknowledge that it was a good match, how she should have won it had this or that gone differently, and how next year will be different. We’ll concede par putts after missing our birdie tries, and go get ready to celebrate at the afterparty.

Prediction: Ryan (4), Kelly (4)

Final Match Result: Ryan (-2), Kelly (+2)


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